I begin this article by bringing
to your notice that this piece is largely a speculation on relevant facts
available to everyone to verify. I prefer to toe the speculative, because philosophic
analysis has influenced me greatly.
The very concept of investment
necessarily implies profit, though not without some avoidable/unavoidable
risks.
You may have raised questions on
the deplorable state of the power sector, coupled with the fact that, the more
the investment in that sector, the weaker its efficiency has been over the
years. But you need to understand that for many years, the government has
trivialized the problems inherent in the power sector to the extent that the
citizens undermine the weight of damage it has done to us as a nation. Well, I am
not a statistician, but elementary knowledge in mathematics leads me to this
analysis.
We are not ignorant of the fact
that between the regimes of Generals Yakubu Gowon and Ibrahim Babangida (that is,
before Nigeria’s Fourth Democratic Republic), electricity generation stood at
approximately 1500 megawatts. Although, various regimes in the fourth republic
have claimed increment in the generation of electricity; but as it stands in
May 2015, it fluctuates between 1327 and 1900 megawatts respectively. Yet we
are also aware that the fourth democratic republic has invested over 16
trillion naira, all to no avail.
Now my take; If 16 trillion naira has been spent in the power
sector in the fourth republic, yet giving us the same megawatts or even less,
than was obtainable before the investment, the question is: where did they
invest the 16 trillion naira? Or put differently; in whose account was the
money lodged?
From 1999 to 2015 will give us 16
years. Surely, the interest rate of banks differ, fluctuating overtime. However,
for the purpose of our analysis, we use a bench mark, leaving the interest rate
at 7%. Let’s therefore do a bit of elementary analysis. It may not have
occurred to you that if you deposit the sum of 16 trillion naira in a fixed
account at the interest rate of 7%, it gives us N1,120,000,000,000 (one
trillion, one hundred and twenty billion naira annually).
N1,120,000,000,000*16 years=N17,920,000,000,000
(seventeen trillion, nine hundred and twenty billion naira).
Knowing that the interest of one
trillion, one hundred and twenty billion naira adds to the original amount of
16 trillion naira annually, we also need to add the interest that accrue from N17,920,000,000,000.
7% of N17,920,000,000,000=N1,254,400,000,000
(one trillion, two hundred and fifty four billion, four hundred million naira).
When we add both figures (N17,920,000,000,000+N1,254,400,000,000), it gives us N19,174,400,000,000
(nineteen trillion, one hundred and seventy four billion, four hundred million
naira).
From my analysis, the sum of N19,174,400,000,000
(nineteen trillion, one hundred and seventy four billion, four hundred million
naira) would have been the profit that stems from 16 trillion naira. That is
not even the end of the damage. When we add up the interest with the original
money that was supposedly invested, we get a total of N35,174,400,000,000. Fellow Nigerians, please check out the
estimate of the budget of the Federal Republic of Nigeria for 15 years and tell
us your figures. It isn’t 16 trillion naira that was invested in the power
sector, in the fourth republic, it’s actually above 35 trillion naira that has
gone into the power sector; because anywhere that money had gone to, that is
the least sum it should have generated. The budget of Nigeria from 1999-2014 is
approximately 35 trillion naira. It implies that even if we devote 15 years
budget of the country solely on the power sector, we couldn’t have derived any
benefit? “You wicked and reckless leaders! Who reap where you do not sow and
gather where you do not scatter, you ought to have invested our money in the
bank, leaving us to dwindle in the power generation of 1500 megawatts that was
handed over to you by the military regime. On the return of the incoming
administration, we would have received our money with interest. Instead, you
decided to squander our funds, taking us back to a stone age and still summon
the courage to call it an investment.” Indeed, it was an investment without
benefit; that is exactly the paradox of investment in Nigerian conceptual
scheme.
